这张图是什么意思?这里面都有哪些技术?


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6个答案
31 0

quasi-Ghost核工程与核技术专业研究僧一枚

2014-05-13 19:43

这是Gartner公司发布的技术成熟度曲线,楼上同学的图是2012年的,楼主这张是2013年的:
(渣翻译渣PS勿喷……)

Gartner是一家专门研究新技术发展的咨询公司,自1995年起每年发布技术成熟度报告,即Hype Cycle。Gartner通过研究提出了一条技术成熟度曲线,即图中的曲线,纵轴是人们对这项技术的期望值,横轴是时间。这条曲线表明一项新技术出现后会经历5个阶段:

萌芽期:技术刚刚出现,人们开始关注,期望值急剧升高
过热期:人们的期望达到顶峰,出现不切实际、不理性的幻想,技术狂热
低谷期:该技术面临的困难使人们打退堂鼓,关注度下降
复苏期:以更加理性的态度对待这项技术并推动其发展
成熟期:最终达到成熟阶段

补充两个相关链接(中文):
http://www.tuicool.com/articles/iieyAv
http://support.huawei.com/ecommunity/bbs/10148241.html

Gartner官网:
http://www.gartner.com

14 0

littlestake知识杂食人事

2014-05-14 17:31

Gartner每年会发布关于技术的成熟度报告,这张图展示了不同领域的现有技术的期望与成熟度。

Gartner自己对Hype Cycles 2013的介绍

The 2013 Gartner Hype Cycle Special Report evaluates the maturity of over 2,000 technologies and trends in 102 areas. New Hype Cycles this year feature content and social analytics, embedded software and systems, consumer market research, open banking, banking operations innovation, and ICT in Africa.

这个图是Hype Cycle for EmergingTechnologies, 2013里的
http://www.gartner.com/document/2571624

This Hype Cycle brings together the most significant technologies from
across Gartner's research areas. It provides insight into emerging
technologies that have broad, cross-industry relevance, and are
transformational and high-impact in potential.

其他还有关于大数据、物联网等的报告
Hype Cycle for Big Data, 2013
HypeCycle for Internet of Things, 2013

我从报告里找了个关于虚拟现实的报告放上来,大家可以了解下,不过说实话,对一般人来说意义可能还没百度大。

比如这是VR的介绍

Definition:
Virtual reality provides a computer-generated 3D environment that surrounds a user and responds to that individual's actions in a natural way, usually through immersive head-mounted displays (HMDs) and head tracking. Gloves providing hand tracking and haptic (touch-sensitive) feedback may be used as well. Room-based systems provide a 3D experience for multiple participants; however, they are more limited in interaction capabilities.

Justification:
Virtual reality is used in high-end simulation and training applications, including military simulation and training like flight simulators, truck operator training in specialized environments (such as mines), and accident investigation in several industries. It is also used in scientific visualization and modeling, including geomodeling in the oil industry and genome mapping, as well as product design, where virtual reality systems are used to immersively experience automobile or equipment design. Fully immersive theme park rides are also considered virtual reality because of their use of computer-generated graphics; but they are limited to a playback experience and are often not responsive to user input.

There have been some advances in HMDs. In late 2012, the crowdsourced Kickstarter project Oculus Rift raised an astounding $2.4 million to develop a fully immersive HMD that is being targeted initially at the video game industry. While a retail version of Oculus Rift is still in development, game developers will need to support this device to make it a success. Developers of approximately 30 games have announced support for the device by 2H13.

Despite these well-established niches, reliance on specialized interfaces has kept virtual reality from becoming a mainstream technology in business or entertainment. Virtual worlds, such as Second Life and IMVU — which show a 3D environment on a 2D screen rather than immersing the user inside a room or by using an HMD — have rekindled interest in virtual reality. However, major technology and usability advances are still required for a low-cost, broadly used immersive virtual environment. In the meantime, growing popularity of 3D entertainment using 3D glasses — and, increasingly, 3D smart television screens and projections that do not require glasses — may relegate immersive virtual reality to permanent niche status. Currently, augmented reality applications (which superimpose information on the user's view of the real world rather than blocking out the real world) or mixed-reality scenarios (where HMDs and context-aware software are used in a hybrid augmented/virtual environment) are more popular technology approaches to the problem of marrying immersive virtual reality to a consumer setting.

While virtual reality can be amazingly sophisticated, the level of customization can come at a high cost; recent advances in consumer technologies may help ease these obstacles. Standards (for example, for artificial intelligence scripting, object metadata and avatar identity data) are becoming more popular due to increased use of social networking technologies (such as management of social media profiles) and broadening use of public identities. On the development side, technologies like cloud graphics processing units and mobile video games, and proliferation of broadband access, will allow application developers to integrate virtual reality more easily into their products.

Analyst:
Brian Blau

Business Impact Areas:
Virtual reality can support a wide variety of simulation and training applications, including rehearsals and response to events; shorten design cycles through immersive collaboration; and enhance the user interface experience for scientific visualization, education and entertainment.

Selected Vendors:
ActiveWorlds;Barco;Digital ArtForms;Mechdyne;Presagis;Virtual Heroes;WorldViz

Benefit Rating:
Moderate

Market Penetration:
1% to 5% of target audience

Maturity:
Emerging

我不会告诉你我前段时间才用Gartner的数据画了张图

0 0

呃。。。nfc 难道是关于手机的么。。。

0 0

我不是南北异性恋、ACFUN、龙门镖局

2014-05-14 22:39

有没有人看到【神经商务】这个项目 囧

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