Gartner自己对Hype Cycles 2013的介绍
The 2013 Gartner Hype Cycle Special Report evaluates the maturity of over 2,000 technologies and trends in 102 areas. New Hype Cycles this year feature content and social analytics, embedded software and systems, consumer market research, open banking, banking operations innovation, and ICT in Africa.
This Hype Cycle brings together the most significant technologies from
across Gartner's research areas. It provides insight into emerging
technologies that have broad, cross-industry relevance, and are
transformational and high-impact in potential.
Virtual reality provides a computer-generated 3D environment that surrounds a user and responds to that individual's actions in a natural way, usually through immersive head-mounted displays (HMDs) and head tracking. Gloves providing hand tracking and haptic (touch-sensitive) feedback may be used as well. Room-based systems provide a 3D experience for multiple participants; however, they are more limited in interaction capabilities.
Virtual reality is used in high-end simulation and training applications, including military simulation and training like flight simulators, truck operator training in specialized environments (such as mines), and accident investigation in several industries. It is also used in scientific visualization and modeling, including geomodeling in the oil industry and genome mapping, as well as product design, where virtual reality systems are used to immersively experience automobile or equipment design. Fully immersive theme park rides are also considered virtual reality because of their use of computer-generated graphics; but they are limited to a playback experience and are often not responsive to user input.
There have been some advances in HMDs. In late 2012, the crowdsourced Kickstarter project Oculus Rift raised an astounding $2.4 million to develop a fully immersive HMD that is being targeted initially at the video game industry. While a retail version of Oculus Rift is still in development, game developers will need to support this device to make it a success. Developers of approximately 30 games have announced support for the device by 2H13.
Despite these well-established niches, reliance on specialized interfaces has kept virtual reality from becoming a mainstream technology in business or entertainment. Virtual worlds, such as Second Life and IMVU — which show a 3D environment on a 2D screen rather than immersing the user inside a room or by using an HMD — have rekindled interest in virtual reality. However, major technology and usability advances are still required for a low-cost, broadly used immersive virtual environment. In the meantime, growing popularity of 3D entertainment using 3D glasses — and, increasingly, 3D smart television screens and projections that do not require glasses — may relegate immersive virtual reality to permanent niche status. Currently, augmented reality applications (which superimpose information on the user's view of the real world rather than blocking out the real world) or mixed-reality scenarios (where HMDs and context-aware software are used in a hybrid augmented/virtual environment) are more popular technology approaches to the problem of marrying immersive virtual reality to a consumer setting.
While virtual reality can be amazingly sophisticated, the level of customization can come at a high cost; recent advances in consumer technologies may help ease these obstacles. Standards (for example, for artificial intelligence scripting, object metadata and avatar identity data) are becoming more popular due to increased use of social networking technologies (such as management of social media profiles) and broadening use of public identities. On the development side, technologies like cloud graphics processing units and mobile video games, and proliferation of broadband access, will allow application developers to integrate virtual reality more easily into their products.
Business Impact Areas:
Virtual reality can support a wide variety of simulation and training applications, including rehearsals and response to events; shorten design cycles through immersive collaboration; and enhance the user interface experience for scientific visualization, education and entertainment.
ActiveWorlds;Barco;Digital ArtForms;Mechdyne;Presagis;Virtual Heroes;WorldViz
1% to 5% of target audience